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Wednesday, March 2nd 2016, 4:49pm

sounds egoistical to me, trump wouldn't destroy the usa(probably), but i'm pretty sure he'd do some substantial damage to pretty much any other country in in the world, and when i see it like that, it seems clear to me that i don't want trump in there.

but then again i know nothing of the clinton(weird, i know) so my opinion is actually very biased by the media.
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Darktan13

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162

Wednesday, March 2nd 2016, 7:44pm

So, it's The Donald versus Hillary Clinton. Unless some miracle happens, of course.


This betrays a fundamental lack of understanding of this GOP race and its rules. Dem side is pretty much on the money, but hey.

Dem delegates are awarded proportionally (except the ones that aren't, but they're irrelevant and don't actually do anything) This means that winning states doesn't matter so much, it's more about the margins involved in such a victory (or loss) Hillary won as expected, but the margins involved are such that it leaves Sanders without a path to the nomination. Unless she catches fire or something.

When sanders wins, she holds him to a close win (giving him only a few more delegates than she gets) and when she wins, she usually wins by quite a bit.

However, that said, Sanders doesn't have to win to be successful.

To be successful, all he has to do is pull Clinton to the left, which he was doing in the very earliest voting states a little. But he more Clinton pulls away, the more she will pivot to centre for the General election. Sanders need to do better (obviously) enough that he can continue to force the narrative left. and thus force Clinton to adopt some of his stances. Whilst he still wouldn't be in the chair, he'd have been successful in getting his policies in high office.

Mad props to whomever is running Clintons campaign. whatever stance you might take on her politics, those running that campaign are easily the best this year, neither sanders group nor the GOP can hold a candle to them.

For the GOP however. delegates are awarded in nigh-uncountable different methods. It's as if the guys who wrote ESL battlefield rules and the original DICE balance guys got together and got hammered as fuck, and then wrote rules for a primary.

This is important. because these rules give us a much different race to the Dem side. Thanks to these hilarious rulesets, we can easily say Trump still isn't the inevitable nominee, I would still bet on him losing. (though his loss isn't inevitable either)

However, we can put these confusing and seemingly-random rulesets into two (very) broad groups.

The first group is the early states, those March 1st and earlier. These (broadly) have rules that functionally end up as proportional delegate races. Trumps 30-35% ish of the vote doesn't give him a massive lead, but a lead it does give him, given the divided field.

The second group, is all the other states, which (broadly) include many winner-takes all. Trumps 30-35% base means nothing here. To DL:DR it, either the field consolidates, and he loses these states, gaining basically no delegates. or the field stays divided, and he wins. How much he wins or loses by is largely irrelevant.

The reasons to (still) be sceptical of trump are long and varied, but here's a simple one. Trump has consistently pulled 30-35% of the vote, including super tuesday. He also failed to get a Majority of delegates in super Tuesday too. Other candidates dropping haven't changed this, he does TERRIBLY as second-choice. In order to win, he has to go from plurality to majority, and he's just not done it yet. It's more likely to reach contested convention than an outright trump win.

Quoted from "J0hn-Stuart-Mill"

EMPOWER EMPOWER EMPOWER

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Wednesday, March 2nd 2016, 9:16pm

I have no problem with admitting that I only have a passing knowledge of US election systems. I also had worked with outdated or inaccurate numbers from my newspaper (or at least they differ from Wikipedia), which gave Trump a substantial lead with 274 delegates over Cruz' 149. (Wikipedia: 337 Trump, 233 Cruz).

It'll be interesting (in one of the scariest ways possible) to see how the previous non-trumpsters will align themselves when Kasich and Rubio drop out. Trump's continued success could signify to many people that he's definitely a vote-able candidate, but I'd thought the same might be true and help Bernie. I wasn't exactly correct in that hope, it seems.

I don't know much about Hillary Clinton's policies or affiliations, but her victory face is scary A.F. (https://i.ytimg.com/vi/8SzwXheW39g/hqdefault.jpg). Would she, by European standards, actually be considered "left of center"?
Zormau - Battlelog / Battlefield 4

Memorable quotes not taken yet:


Of course, this ignores the non-constant cross-sectional first moment of area across the chest as well as non-constant material properties of the boob; it would be difficult to perform a more detailed analysis (as in, I'd have to have a shape function AND I'd need to derive a function for elastic modulus as a function of lateral breast coordinate) but whatever. It's 2am and I'm lazy.


I always believed science should be very hands on experience.

You should also answer this question I had posed in that thread: Would you be willing to pay your surgeon more if he was going to use a chainsaw for the opening incision of surgery? Clearly using a chainsaw isn't truly suited for surgery but that doesn't really matter. If he's "skilled" enough to be able to use the wrong tools of the trade, he should be rewarded for that skill right?


Nick 30075

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164

Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 12:58am

Would she, by European standards, actually be considered "left of center"?

I think the only person running who's even close to center is Bernie Sanders. Clinton is definitely right of center.
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I have the highest postcount. Nick doesn't count.

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Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 1:38am

Would she, by European standards, actually be considered "left of center"?

I think the only person running who's even close to center is Bernie Sanders. Clinton is definitely right of center.

Bernie is the only independent by American standards, and even he isn't moderate by world standards. He was an independent for his entire senate career, running as a Democrat because he wouldn't have a chance if he stayed in the middle.

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Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 5:41am

The Trumpening is real folks

Get ready for a Trump presidency.

Trump will make animu great again


Nick 30075

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Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 5:50am

I saw that video a while back and it's absolutely brilliant.

At least if Trump becomes president we get to keep the memes.
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ViperFTW: THIS
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Darktan13

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168

Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 4:27pm

Would she, by European standards, actually be considered "left of center"?

I think the only person running who's even close to center is Bernie Sanders. Clinton is definitely right of center.

Bernie is the only independent by American standards, and even he isn't moderate by world standards. He was an independent for his entire senate career, running as a Democrat because he wouldn't have a chance if he stayed in the middle.


Wat. Being independent doesn't make you a centrist. If you want a moderate look to john kasich, no-one currently running is as close to moderate as he is.
John Kasich on the Issues
Independent is simply a lack of party affiliation, Sanders is solidly left of the Democrats, his adoption into the Dems hasn't changed this.
Applying EU definitions on a US race sounds like a lot of effort for nothing, and doesn't make any sense, the euro "rules" of politics don't apply here, so lets not try to.

Sitting president - Barack Obama on the Issues Solidly on the left of US politics.
Current secretary of state - Hillary Clinton on the Issues - Slightly further to the left of Obama on most things, but more hawkish on foreign policy.
Sanders, previously independent - Bernie Sanders on the Issues - Solidly further left of Clinton on most issues, with the most obvious exception being gun control.

Note that all three share a massive number of positions. Clinton is something like 95% identical to Obama.


I have no problem with admitting that I only have a passing knowledge of US election systems. I also had worked with outdated or inaccurate numbers from my newspaper (or at least they differ from Wikipedia), which gave Trump a substantial lead with 274 delegates over Cruz' 149. (Wikipedia: 337 Trump, 233 Cruz).

It'll be interesting (in one of the scariest ways possible) to see how the previous non-trumpsters will align themselves when Kasich and Rubio drop out. Trump's continued success could signify to many people that he's definitely a vote-able candidate, but I'd thought the same might be true and help Bernie. I wasn't exactly correct in that hope, it seems.

I don't know much about Hillary Clinton's policies or affiliations, but her victory face is scary A.F. (https://i.ytimg.com/vi/8SzwXheW39g/hqdefault.jpg). Would she, by European standards, actually be considered "left of center"?


You think Kasich and Rubio will drop out? I don't see it. Whilst Trump and Cruz are ahead in delegates, Cruz's best states are behind him, and trump hasn't demonstrated any capacity to push beyond his core vote. A few key losses in winner-take-all states for trump will instantly deny him the required delegates to win outright. We might even see this by the 15th, with Ohio and Florida, both winner take all with many delegates, home to Kasich and Rubio, if they win their home states, trump would have a hard time hitting the magic delegate number.

That said, if candidates do drop out, largely this doesn't help trump. Trump does terribly as second or third choice. If any candidate was to drop, it'd be Kasich, he just doesn't have the funds, among other things.

Bernie probably did pick up most of the Omalley voters, Iowa would be a good example of that. but that doesn't really mean jack shit when practically no-one was voting Omalley anyway. Sanders biggest problem is simple. Hillary is a much better idealogical fit for the Dems. Policy wise, follow the above links, Vsimilar to Obama politically. Which is much of her messaging, she's portrayed herself as the 'Obama Legacy' candidate.

Unrelated -

The fruit salad of their life, is what I would look at - Ben "sleepy" Carson - 2016.

Carson is fucking gold. Trump can't hold a candle to this man. If only he hadn't quit, we could have more of this wonder.

Quoted from "J0hn-Stuart-Mill"

EMPOWER EMPOWER EMPOWER

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Thursday, March 3rd 2016, 4:33pm

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Wednesday, March 9th 2016, 9:16am

In the biggest upset in the history of US presidential primaries, Sanders won Michigan. Trailing by an average of 21-22% in the polls, he won by 2%.

Demographically, this was a fairly solid state for sanders. the polling was somewhat at odds with this.

However, In Mississippi Hillary almost pushed sanders off the board completely, with a 83-16 win. Sanders is now further still behind in delegates overall. Winning some states by 2% isn't good enough when you're getting slaughtered everywhere else.

Quoted from "J0hn-Stuart-Mill"

EMPOWER EMPOWER EMPOWER