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Nick 30075

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91

Monday, January 4th 2016, 2:07am

The reason Sanders doesn't have much backing is that a lot of the people who like him think that he can't win. If he can win the first 2-3 primaries, he's much better off. As for the data breach, Clinton's team had access to the same data that Sanders did and refused to say what her team had done with it so meh.

A LOT of people like Trump. He's polling really well early on and that's huge. Most of the people paying attention to the game right now are the ones who really care, as the election draws closer the people who only care a little are going to just go for whoever has the most charisma so his stock will only go up.

A month ago, Carson was the forerunner and everyone thought he had it. Now it's Rubio. The RNC is just an unpredictable mess atm.
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You're fedorable :love:

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I have the highest postcount. Nick doesn't count.

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23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm -
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Okay
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm stabbing everyone
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Bye guys
23:44 Nick: *flips table*
23:44 Legion: Bye, happy stabbing
23:44 *** Lt_Col_Jesus quit (Quit: off to murder the public at large).

Quoted

10:41 LB: You just...reanimated Steve Jobs.
10:41 Dice: Well that would be unfortunate, I was just getting used to him being dead.

Quoted from "Pheozero"

... fuck. Damn you hindsight!

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23:58 Failure117: CAUSE IM FREEE
23:58 Nick: AS A BIIIIRD NOW
23:58 Failure117: FREEE OF NICK'S WORM RAPE

Quoted

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ViperFTW: I WANT TO SWAT IT WITH MY COMICLY LARGE SWORD
ViperFTW: WITH
ViperFTW: THIS
ViperFTW: AS
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Darktan13

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92

Monday, January 4th 2016, 3:28am

Problem with the republicans is they are all the same on the issues, it's left up to who is the most charismatic. And Trump is just as impolite as the average redneck.

Sanders can win. I don't know why he can't. Especially if he gets the first few states. I think that may need to be his strategy; if the rest of the people on the fence about Bernie see him win, he will win. If they don't see him win, he will likely be discarded.

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The republicans are all the same? lol what. I don't even. There's huge differences between them. You can't honestly say Cruz / Rubio / Christie are the same, if you count trump as a real candidate then the positions deviate further. The republican race is by far the interesting one, there's a pretty varied set of competitors, some of which are pretty extreme ( trump / cruz ) The republican field hasn't been so varied in ages. There's nine left running after the other three dropped. And of those, none of them are running away in any metric ( at least, compared to the dem race )

Sanders can't win. The first few states - of them new hampshire has a good chance to go to sanders, but it doesn't matter and MAYBE he could take Iowa, there's a real chance there. and that would functionally hand him new hampshire if that did happen, but that doesn't give him the nation. It'd give him a boost sure, but not an overly longlasting one, especially when she starts racking up wins.

Hillary has better scores in all the things that matter. She has much better backing from donors / establishment elites / general populace and polls better ( I know, early polls ) nationally than sanders does. and with I think, higher favourability ratings. This doesn't mean she's going to take every state by a landslide, sanders will take a few, no doubt. But this is functionally as close to a one-horse race as you're going to get.

Take the endorsements for example. Almost all possible Dem party endorsements have already been declared, sanders has two endorsements. two, from representatives. Hillary has 145 of the same, plus 38 senators and 12 governors. Endorsements from party elites are among the top indicators of the eventual victor. This is symthic no? we should weave a little statistics into this. In all the metrics that matter, Hillary is a mile ahead of sanders. he has nothing. No support from his party, low-middling support in the general public, zero support inside his party, low cash and a low presence on the ground compared to Hillary.

EDIT - Whilst Hillary only has a slim-ish lead in Iowa, and a less-than-overwhelming performance there would give strength to sanders in new hampshire, where they are functionally tied ( hampshire has always been sanders stronghold ) in the next state - South Carolina, Hillary has a 49% lead, In sanders BEST STATES, he's roughly on par with Hillary. He really doesn't have all that much.

Quoted from "J0hn-Stuart-Mill"

EMPOWER EMPOWER EMPOWER

This post has been edited 4 times, last edit by "Darktan13" (Jan 4th 2016, 3:42am)


Nick 30075

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93

Monday, January 4th 2016, 3:48am

Yeah, no one around where I'm from knows who the hell he is, most people think that Hilary is running for the Dems unopposed. Sanders lacks support because the news avoids covering him and people don't educate themselves. It's basically because the only news that anyone watches is FOX (even the Dems watch FOX); liberals in SC are more "anti-conservative" than liberal imo.

Seconded on the Republican side, there's a lot of variety among the candidates over there.
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Quoted from "Blue Panda"

You're fedorable :love:

Quoted from "ToTheSun!"

I have the highest postcount. Nick doesn't count.

Quoted

23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm -
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Okay
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm stabbing everyone
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Bye guys
23:44 Nick: *flips table*
23:44 Legion: Bye, happy stabbing
23:44 *** Lt_Col_Jesus quit (Quit: off to murder the public at large).

Quoted

10:41 LB: You just...reanimated Steve Jobs.
10:41 Dice: Well that would be unfortunate, I was just getting used to him being dead.

Quoted from "Pheozero"

... fuck. Damn you hindsight!

Quoted

23:58 Failure117: CAUSE IM FREEE
23:58 Nick: AS A BIIIIRD NOW
23:58 Failure117: FREEE OF NICK'S WORM RAPE

Quoted

ViperFTW: HEY LOOK
ViperFTW: AN ALIEN LASER FISH THE SIZE OF THE SUN
ViperFTW: I WANT TO SWAT IT WITH MY COMICLY LARGE SWORD
ViperFTW: WITH
ViperFTW: THIS
ViperFTW: AS
ViperFTW: MY
ViperFTW: FUUUUCKING SOUNDTRACK :DDDD
(the album in question)


IG

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94

Monday, January 4th 2016, 7:44am

This topic seems to have pretty off topic... not much about Donald Trump but the 2016 Presidential Race in general.

Maybe we should open a 2016 Presidential Race thread?

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95

Monday, January 4th 2016, 10:34am

A LOT of people like Trump. He's polling really well early on and that's UUUUGE.

FTFY

Nick 30075

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96

Monday, January 4th 2016, 6:20pm

This topic seems to have pretty off topic... not much about Donald Trump but the 2016 Presidential Race in general.

Maybe we should open a 2016 Presidential Race thread?

Meh, I made this thread as the general American Politics thread though named it with something related to American politics. If we want to change it then w/e.
Emperor Nick of the Cult of Defibrillation
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I'm basically just a degenerate weeb who doesn't post much nowadays.

I'm secretly Old Man Symthic

Siggy thingies


Gaming Stuff


Words of Wisdom (not really)

Quoted from "Blue Panda"

You're fedorable :love:

Quoted from "ToTheSun!"

I have the highest postcount. Nick doesn't count.

Quoted

23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm -
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Okay
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: I'm stabbing everyone
23:44 Lt_Col_Jesus: Bye guys
23:44 Nick: *flips table*
23:44 Legion: Bye, happy stabbing
23:44 *** Lt_Col_Jesus quit (Quit: off to murder the public at large).

Quoted

10:41 LB: You just...reanimated Steve Jobs.
10:41 Dice: Well that would be unfortunate, I was just getting used to him being dead.

Quoted from "Pheozero"

... fuck. Damn you hindsight!

Quoted

23:58 Failure117: CAUSE IM FREEE
23:58 Nick: AS A BIIIIRD NOW
23:58 Failure117: FREEE OF NICK'S WORM RAPE

Quoted

ViperFTW: HEY LOOK
ViperFTW: AN ALIEN LASER FISH THE SIZE OF THE SUN
ViperFTW: I WANT TO SWAT IT WITH MY COMICLY LARGE SWORD
ViperFTW: WITH
ViperFTW: THIS
ViperFTW: AS
ViperFTW: MY
ViperFTW: FUUUUCKING SOUNDTRACK :DDDD
(the album in question)


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97

Monday, January 4th 2016, 6:32pm

No need to. Still relatively close to the original topic.
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[22:09:20] Failure117: Legion: Tank Expert and Pokemon Afficianado

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Monday, January 4th 2016, 9:24pm

Polls are normally wildly off at this stage.
Primary polling (i.e. popular vote to determine each party's presidential pick) is next month. I know it could still swing quite a lot, but the way Trump's running right now (i.e. thinking he's got his side on lockdown and now taking shots across the aisle at Hillary) I doubt he'd lose unless there's a very shocking development. Example: video of him raping a dead Muslim (I'd say bribing someone but as Nick has said before, that's commonplace in US politics). Also, a lot of the polls tend to follow suit of the early ones; that's why Iowa and NH are focused on the most cuz they're the two earliest polls to open.
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Tuesday, January 5th 2016, 5:02am

Polls are normally wildly off at this stage.
Primary polling (i.e. popular vote to determine each party's presidential pick) is next month. I know it could still swing quite a lot, but the way Trump's running right now (i.e. thinking he's got his side on lockdown and now taking shots across the aisle at Hillary) I doubt he'd lose unless there's a very shocking development. Example: video of him raping a dead Muslim (I'd say bribing someone but as Nick has said before, that's commonplace in US politics). Also, a lot of the polls tend to follow suit of the early ones; that's why Iowa and NH are focused on the most cuz they're the two earliest polls to open.

I have my doubts a video of him raping a muslim would be enough to bring him down.

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Tuesday, January 5th 2016, 8:46pm

but the way Trump's running right now (i.e. thinking he's got his side on lockdown and now taking shots across the aisle at Hillary) I doubt he'd lose unless there's a very shocking development. Example: video of him raping a dead Muslim (I'd say bribing someone but as Nick has said before, that's commonplace in US politics). Also, a lot of the polls tend to follow suit of the early ones; that's why Iowa and NH are focused on the most cuz they're the two earliest polls to open.


A LOT of people like Trump. He's polling really well early on and that's huge. Most of the people paying attention to the game right now are the ones who really care, as the election draws closer the people who only care a little are going to just go for whoever has the most charisma so his stock will only go up.

A month ago, Carson was the forerunner and everyone thought he had it. Now it's Rubio. The RNC is just an unpredictable mess atm.


This is something we've seen said again and again in this thread, Lets examine it a bit.

Trumps "likeability" is actually quite low. As you can see . only 35% ish have a favourable view of trump, and 57% have an unfavourable view of trump, with a low mostly single digit undecided. Most people don't like him, and have made up their minds about him. thats bad for trump. only a roughly 3-10% undecided on him. Lets compare to Rubio, generally considered the establishment favourite, and currently betting markets favourite to win the nomination overall ( not every state mind you ) Much better ratings He's at a 35% / 35% split, which is pretty solid, and a 25-30% ish undecided, this is good for rubio, there's a large section of the electorate he can "win over", they're not hostile to him as they are to trump. This puts an effective cap on how well trump can do, unless he makes huge efforts to win over everyone he just alienated. And his favourability has been dropping over time.

Now, voters don't have to "like" someone to vote for them, favourability is not voting intention. So lets talk about those "huge early polls".

To Iowa we go! But this isn't huge at all. our man trump is losing here! second to cruz. Notice how almost all of carsons supporters swapped to cruz, who thanks to trump, looks more sane in comparison. In third, is our favourite, Rubio with a reasonable slice of the pie. Especially when you consider all those other establishment-friendly players on the field, as they start dropping, most of that support will likely shift to him. Remember that Rubios strategy is a national one, and isn't sinking so much effort into these two early states, they're really not all that valuable. Typically they can give momentum to a campaign. Like if Sanders wins Iowa, he's pretty certain to take his tie in new hampshire over to a win. But these things aren't one surge and done. Not exactly a runaway performance for trump atm.

To new Hampshire! This is much better for trump ( and sanders too ) but again, not overly dominant considering the split vote below him. His lead is roughly the same as Hillaries is in Iowa, and as we've said before, there's a solid chance she could lose there. If trump loses Iowa, that'd hurt him here, he'd probably lose this one too.

Now that said, I'm not suggesting Rubio is the most likely to win every state, just overall. It's unlikely he'll take Iowa, and probably Hampshire too. So long as his supporters nerve holds, he's actually in quite a good position. Though far from the certain winner, this isn't the Dem contest.


Quoted

""lot of the polls tend to follow suit of the early ones""
- This really isn't true. We'll take the Dem contest this year as an example. Hillary - small lead in Iowa, Tied in New Hampshire, 49 point lead in South Carolina. Different states are different, and Iowa/Hampshire really aren't a template for the nation. They've got wildly different demographics to the rest of the country. For example, Iowa has one-third of the minorities compared to the country average.

Quoted

A month ago, Carson was the forerunner and everyone thought he had it. Now it's Rubio. The RNC is just an unpredictable mess atm.
Actually, if you check both those New Hampshire and the Iowa polls posted, he never was really THE frontrunner, he's always trailed Trump in the polls, and never had really good numbers. Plus the party hates him, zero support from party officials. Carson is a not-entirely-terrible example of someone who surged early, ( like trump ) but didn't last. trump has kinda lasted . . . so far, but that doesn't tell us much. Yet.

And the Rubio thing isn't new. His position in the polls and support from the party has been steadily moving upwards . . slowly. He's practically always been the favourite on the betting markets. Yes the RNC isn't locked down like the Dems are, but they're not exactly in a mess yet. Trump hasn't runaway with anything, and his position gets weaker and weaker as we get closer to the actual votes.

EDIT -
Trump - I doubt he'd lose unless there's a very shocking development.


Then you're in for a shock :D

Quoted from "J0hn-Stuart-Mill"

EMPOWER EMPOWER EMPOWER

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "Darktan13" (Jan 5th 2016, 8:53pm)