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  • "pmax" started this thread

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Wednesday, January 2nd 2019, 4:53pm

Preliminary, Early, A Posteriori Data

EDIT: Wait, I think I can gather data from TRN using a better method. Give me another couple of days. Original post follows.

-----

FURTHER EDIT: I was absolutely right. Thanks to @Miffyli for planting the seed that worked.

I wrote a game report spider to collect names, and ended up with upards of 60,000 of them in just a couple of hours. I then spent the next two days sucking stats from TRN through what seemed like a very narrow straw. I stopped my scraper after it had processed just short of 25,000 names; database access was getting slow (I'm using SQLite, which scales poorly), and I figured I'd gotten more than a large enough sample to give good results. I filtered out the players who had played for less than six hours, and ended up with usable data on 22,271 players. Then I redrew my graphs.

See the summary of the new results here.

Again, this is just a summary. Actual analysis (looking for relationships and trends) will come later.

Some choice plots from the new pass:

Spoiler Spoiler


Fully half of all players spend less than 3% of their recon time with the spotting scope equipped.


Total fraction of in-game kills is the lighter bar on top; total fraction of in-game time spent is the darker bar on the bottom.


Most of the original post is below here for historical reasons, I guess:

-----

Several years ago I drew a bunch of graphs based on data I'd collected from Battlelog about BF4 players (back when BF4 was the thing). The limiting factors for this kind of analysis have always been 1) gathering enough player names, and 2) which stats are available. I had been lamenting my inability to do this properly for BF5 because the method used for name mining for my BF4 analysis was closed to me (and, to a lesser extent, the data available on any given player is less than it once was).

Well, a couple of days ago I had an epiphany: I realized that a sizeable portion of the player names I had collected while siphoning BF4 data from Battlelog were probably still good for BF5, too! (What with them being Origin usernames and all.) I was right.

So I spent all day yesterday sucking down data from TRN (they'll give you an API key if you ask via the right channels). (I also scraped a bunch of names from the official EA BFV forums, but that's not where the majority of my usable player names came from.) I ended up with 7,723 names who had non-zero playing time on the PC platform, 6,383 of whom had played for at least six hours. These 6,383 players constitute my data set. Yes, I know it is not a simple random sample, comprising almost exclusively players who have played at least one other Battlefield title and have had Origin accounts since at least 2014. But it is, nonetheless, a sizeable, accessible sample.

As of yet, I have only summary data. Analysis will come, I promise!

You can view the full (such as it is) summary here.

As I said before, some actual analysis (looking for trends, etc.) is yet to come. Also, as many of the player names I have appear to be valid Origin names with zero PC play time, I may very well have access to thousands of Xbox and PS4 players' data, in which case there may be some valid analysis comparing the three platforms to be had.

This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "pmax" (Jan 6th 2019, 9:34pm) with the following reason: I redid my data collection and drew new graphs.


Miffyli

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Wednesday, January 2nd 2019, 11:32pm

Five generations of Battlefield, and shotguns are still reporting wonky accuracies due to many pellets ^^.

Since we are starting on this so early, do you think it would make sense to use same scrapers/scripts to repeat the analysis as time passes (e.g. weeks after new DLCs or major patches)? Should it be done with different sets of players, unless we specifically want to track the per-person change over time?

Does TRN provide other data than ones shown on site, and can you also gather match reports?
Links to users' thread list who have made analytical/statistical/mathematical/cool posts on Symthic:
  • 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
  • InterimAegis - Weapon comparisons/scoring.
  • leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
  • Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
  • pmax - Statistical analysis of BF4 players/games.
  • Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 12:25am

All the rank 20 weapons have the top KPM (or close to it) in their weapon groups. I’d say that’s a self-selecting group this early in BFVs lifetime.

NoctyrneSAGA

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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 12:46am

The default weapons are used too much.

Clearly they are OP.
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  • "pmax" started this thread

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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 1:02am

Five generations of Battlefield, and shotguns are still reporting wonky accuracies due to many pellets .

I actually did consider trying some kludge like dividing the number of hits by the number of pellets, but with the possibility of using slugs, we don't know how many projectiles are associated with any given pull of the trigger, so I just punted. And honestly, who really cares about shotgun accuracy?

Since we are starting on this so early, do you think it would make sense to use same scrapers/scripts to repeat the analysis as time passes (e.g. weeks after new DLCs or major patches)? Should it be done with different sets of players, unless we specifically want to track the per-person change over time?

Oh, I absolutely plan to repeat this as time goes on. The game is super young right now, so this kind of data gives a weird, temporal snapshot that becomes rapidly inaccurate (see InterimAegis's comment, for example). The Tides of War unlocks have been available for a significantly shorter time than the other weapons (and still not to everyone), so the data involving them is certainly skewed.

Does TRN provide other data than ones shown on site, and can you also gather match reports?

The way I got data for this summary report was actually through a weird kludge involving the old BF1 API they offered. It's possible to change the

Source code

1
game=tunguska
to

Source code

1
game=casablanca
in the query string and get some limited BFV data. Today I spent some more time squinting at Chrome's "developer mode" (or whatever it is they call that window that pops up when you hit F12) while clicking around on my stats page there, then did a little experimenting, and figured out how to get some more comprehensive data. So, I am going to do this again as soon as I finish rewriting my scraping scripts.

It turns out that they do indeed have game reports, and OH MY GOD I JUST FIGURED OUT HOW I'M GOING TO SCRAPE THOUSANDS MORE NAMES. Thanks for asking! I'm going to leave it to someone else to actually collect and analyze the game report data, but I'm sure going to mine it for those sweet, sweet player names.

All the rank 20 weapons have the top KPM (or close to it) in their weapon groups. I?d say that?s a self-selecting group this early in BFVs lifetime.

Oh, certainly. At this point, these values are heavily influenced by player access. This analysis will be more about how the weapons perform and less about how the players who have manged to unlock them perform as time goes on, I am sure.

The default weapons are used too much.

Clearly they are OP.

This made me chuckle. However, I do think that in a properly-designed game, this should be the case. The default weapons should be the best "all-round" choices, with the later unlocks catering to more niche styles and circumstances.

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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 1:27am

This made me chuckle. However, I do think that in a properly-designed game, this should be the case. The default weapons should be the best "all-round" choices, with the later unlocks catering to more niche styles and circumstances.


Quite.

The whole "BF1 Level 10 weapons need to be superweapons or they're not worthy max level rewards" mentality that reddit adopted was disheartening.
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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 6:58am

That was never the commonly held opinion.


So, with regards to the KE7, not only is it more popular because it's the starter, it's also worth noting that the second unlock is an MMG, and third unlock is a shotgun, so it takes people until the forth unlock (Bren) to get to the next "normal", all-round gun. On top of this, while I personally love the Bren's incredible stability and accuracy, its very low RoF could be a turn off to other players who may prefer faster, more run-and-gun weapons; they have to get all the way to the FG 42 for a comparable (medium-high RoF AR-style) gun.
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Thursday, January 3rd 2019, 2:27pm

That is some quite interesting data, I was hoping for battlefieldtracker to release something like this, as they had quite a few insights in BF1. Did they have a larger sample size? Are there any ways to expand the data to have a more precise result? Or is there a way to track current players as well, or on different maps?

  • "pmax" started this thread

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Sunday, January 6th 2019, 9:35pm

Bump for New Analysis

Hey, guys, I redid my data collection and redrew my charts, so I'm bumping this thread.

See the edited, updated original post.

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Sunday, January 6th 2019, 11:08pm

Is there a way to see other "teamplay" activities such as repairs or resupplies in addition to the spotting scope?

Also, could you compare KPMs of different weapons like what you had before?
Data Browser

Passive Spotting is the future!

"Skill" may indeed be the most magical of words. Chant it well enough and any desire can be yours.

Are you a scrub?

If it flies, it dies™.