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NoctyrneSAGA

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Friday, November 9th 2018, 8:59am

BFV Early Access FTK

As usual, 100k center mass shots using 15 rb in a 60Hz environment. If a weapon does not have at least 15 rounds, its maximum mag size is used instead.

ADS stationary and hipfire moving are the states the shooter is in.

Vertical recoil is perfectly countered. Only the Full Left and Full Right trees are considered right now. Cross-overs will need to be pored over to figure out what is redundant.

Assault


M1907


SG15


StG44


G15


G43


M1Carbine


SL1916


Turner




Medic


EMP


M1928A1


MP28


MP34


MP40


Sten


Suomi




Support


Bren


FG42


KE7


Lewis


MG34


MG42




Recon


Auto8


RSC


ZH29




Full album here

Condensed spreadsheet here

The StG44's nerf caused collateral damage with the SG15. The nerf is quite an overreaction too; neither of them are really compelling picks for Assault right now. While a ranged damage output nerf may have been warranted for the StG44, the CQB damage nerf came out of nowhere. This makes the StG a redundant choice in CQB engagements since the SG15 and M1907 both kill faster and just as reliably if not more out to 40m. If you want to try your luck at long range with the StG44, don't. You are better off picking any of the semiautos at around 40m. At that point, nearly all of them are better choices. At 50m, all of them perform better.

Recommendation: Buff the StG44 and SG15 to have the same 4BTK as the M1907. This will let both be more compelling picks in close range considering that the overwhelming majority of automatics have close range 4 BTKs. The StG44's long range performance relative to the other ARs and semiautos is fine. If it gets a 4BTK range similar to other automatics, it will actually be better at close range than semiautos and better at long range than other ARs. As of now, it is a weapon you pick if you want to lose at all ranges.

StG44 with 4 BTK



Now it can actually compete with the rest of the 4 BTK automatics again.



LMGs getting massive buffs compounds the situation even more. They universally got accuracy buffs while retaining their 4 BTK. The KE7 specifically resembles what the StG44 used to look like. These for the most part look pretty good.

SMGs have great hipfire and decent ADS performance depending on how you invest. These look pretty good.

SLRs are much better than Bolt Actions unless you are Stodeh-tier.



I think 9m as the 4 BTK threshold is too short and the chart axis has to start at 8 compared to the Beta versions just for it to show up as a data point. It's not very useful and I would recommend pushing it back out to at least 12m again, maybe even 15m. The weapons that'd benefit the most from this would be the SMGs which would be able to utilize their hipfire advantage much more often.

kht120's thread discussing more



My personal recommendations:
  • Assault: M1907 or Turner depending on situation
  • Medic: Suomi or MP34 depending on situation
  • Support: KE7
  • Recon: ZH29
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This post has been edited 7 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Nov 12th 2018, 9:49am)


This post by "marbleduck" (Friday, November 9th 2018, 6:45pm) has been deleted by user "Miffyli" (Saturday, November 10th 2018, 12:29pm) with the following reason: Rule 5

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Saturday, November 10th 2018, 4:02pm

These are really really nice - seriously well thought-out figures with a clean presentation of a complicated data set.

For a little feedback, it might be nice to have the color maps have a fixed range (e.g. 0 - 75 FTK) so they are easier to compare from weapon to weapon. It would also be nice to list the upgrades available on each side.

As for the weapons, there do seem to be some clear front-runners in the assault class (Turner, M1907), support class (FG42, KE7), medic class (MP28, MP40, MP34 in order of map size and openness), and Recon (AL8, RSC, and ZH-29 are all viable if you aren't a sniper).

Of those, I am most happy about the weapon balance in the Medic and Recon classes because at least I have multi-optioned choice to make among the same weapon type and playstyle. I agree strongly that the 4 BTK for SMGs needs to be extended to 12 m instead of 9 m. Would it also be so bad to push the drop-off from 6-7 BTK a little further out (e.g. 5-10 m)? I think that would really help the utility of Medics in non-urban settings. My Medic K/D is horrible so far, but I have been quite effective at Assault and Recon.

This post has been edited 3 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Nov 10th 2018, 4:10pm)


NoctyrneSAGA

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Saturday, November 10th 2018, 10:11pm

Fixed color scale is something I want to do.

In the meantime, I'm creating a spreadsheet version that will put everything on one screen for easy viewing.

It's clear the StG44 right now has no relevance. Its CQB performance is on the same level as the semiauto rifles. As I said in the OP, you basically only use the M1907 until you require the accuracy of a semiauto rifle.

The StG44 is not an all-rounder that lets you split the difference between SMGs/M1907 and SARs/SLRs. It is a weapon you pick if you want to lose.
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This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Nov 11th 2018, 4:39am)


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Sunday, November 11th 2018, 10:01pm

In the meantime, I'm creating a spreadsheet version that will put everything on one screen for easy viewing.


Perhaps another idea is to echo some of the 'scoring' that I used for SLRs in BF1. For example, you could score each weapon based on FTK multiplied by some measure of the kill probability (KP), or alternatively the number of kills secured per magazine (KPM). I have to think of how to scale it, since lower FTK and higher KP diverge.

Now, when you look at the spreadsheet, many weapons appear to have good FTKs at long range, even though their kill probability is very low. I used to then take those modified FTKs (or in my case TTKs) and multiply by a weighted distribution of kill distances (we can estimate since we don't have data yet for BFV).

I am sure you also have some ideas about how to go about that - happy to discuss!

NoctyrneSAGA

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Sunday, November 11th 2018, 10:06pm

@InterimAegis

Expected FTK does just that. kht120 and I were trying to figure out just how much weight a non-lethal kill should have.

Set it to -1 and you drag the FTK down. Set it to 9999 and it shoots way up. I think he ultimately decided to just take the average FTK and divide by the probability of a kill.

You would have to ask him.
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Sunday, November 11th 2018, 10:08pm

I think he ultimately decided to just take the average FTK and divide by the probability of a kill.


That's an excellent way to do it and makes complete sense. Just to be clear, that's already the U[FTK] values you have reported (so a combination of accuracy as well as probability)?

EDIT: I guess I am a little confused, because the FTK should blow up as the KP goes to zero.




Looking forward to some more granularity on what the specific stats are (particularly mag sizes) and which specializations end up forcing particular choices. We can then compare possible selections to these data you have generated and see if there are any tertiary selections that need to be added.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Nov 11th 2018, 10:30pm)


NoctyrneSAGA

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Monday, November 12th 2018, 3:10am

@InterimAegis

From kht's version of the thread

  • E[FTK]: Expected frames to kill. A value factoring in average time to kill and the probability of the 15 round burst actually killing the target.
  • U[FTK]: Average frames to kill. A value that is the mean of all the instances where the gun actually killed.


U[FTK] is the white text. It's positioned along the y-axis based on its value.

E[FTK] is the black text. It's U[FTK] adjusted by kill probability.
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Monday, November 12th 2018, 4:33am

@InterimAegis

E[FTK] is the black text. It's U[FTK] adjusted by kill probability.


I never even saw that text, sorry! Maybe put it next to U[FTK]? Or in a separate figure? I feel like it’s the most important factor but isn’t that prominent (or I just overlooked it?).

Thanks for the reply

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Tuesday, November 13th 2018, 5:27am

Suomi or MP34 depending on situation
Quick question @NoctyrneSAGA,

Why MP34? Just curious on your thoughts on this gun as KHT120's reddit post specifically states this gun is trash.