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NoctyrneSAGA

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1

Sunday, October 28th 2018, 8:29pm

BFV Open Beta FTK

The new Hitrater reports back its runs in much greater detail than in BF1. The concept is still the same (fire 100k times at a specified aimpoint) but now it tells us how many frames it took to secure a kill, how many frames on average, how many runs failed to kill, etc. This means I don't have to calculate anything like in the BF1 Effective TTK/FTK charts. This is basically brute-forcing 100k engagements with the specified weapon so what you will see is the truest representation of the weapon's performance. The only problem is that limbs still aren't represented but that isn't too important.

Each chart (thanks again to kht120) shows the product of 100k 15 round bursts in a 60Hz environment into center mass utilizing Open Beta stats. The shooter is standing still and ADSing. Weapons that do not have 15 rounds to burst instead dump as many as they have. Because of the way this reporting works, the results of the 15rb can somewhat be considered the sum of the results of 1rb, 2rb, 3rb, etc. A lethal 12rb will still show up as a 12rb for example. The black number in the middle of each bar is the average lethal FTK for that distance.

Assault


StG44





G43





M1 Carbine





Turner SMLE







Medic


EMP





MP40





STEN





Suomi







Support


Bren





FG42





KE7







Recon


ZH29







Full album

The StG44 is a pretty well-rounded weapon, but the performance of the semiautomatic rifles at medium to long range kind of makes it hard to call it "OP" as the community did.

SMGs can compete quite well in CQB and as the hipfire charts below demonstrate, they do not even have to ADS. If we add ADS time as an offset, the SMGs start winning because their damage comes out sooner.

LMGs can offer comparable performance to the StG44 and I surmise it'd be even better if I activated the bipod. Based on past experience, it probably turns them into laser beams.
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This post has been edited 6 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Nov 1st 2018, 2:28am) with the following reason: Remade charts to display avg FTK the same way hipfire charts do


NoctyrneSAGA

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Sunday, October 28th 2018, 8:33pm

Hipfire Charts

Charting software zoomed in if the runs didn't reach close enough to 100k so you will unfortunately have to pay attention the scale of the y-axis. However, 100k bursts were used for data collection.

These charts are assuming 15 round bursts (or the magazine capacity if fewer) into center mass, similar to the ADS charts.

However, unlike the ADS charts which assumed a stationary shooter, these hipfire charts assume a moving shooter.

I'm also trying an adjustment to the chart where the average lethal FTK is positioned based on its value to better illustrate the change over distance.

Assault


StG44





G43





M1 Carbine





Turner SMLE







Medic


EMP





MP40





STEN





Suomi







Support


Bren





FG42





KE7







Recon


ZH29







Full album

Some weapons have such bad hipfire accuracy that they can score enough lucky headshots for a quick kill. The ZH29 is the best example of this.

However, the clear winners are the SMGs which consistently secure kills out to 20-25m.

It is entirely possible to match them within 10m, but not without investing in hipfire upgrades. Even then, the variance in FTK is much higher than an SMG's. A right branch StG44 for example has 14 possible FTKs at 10m and nearly all of them present equal chances of happening. SMGs are much more consistent.
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This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Oct 29th 2018, 6:56am)


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Tuesday, October 30th 2018, 5:42am

I hope this begins to put to rest the idea of the StG being overpowered. It's certainly a very good weapon when preemptively ADSed, but cleanly loses to SMGs in close quarters (especially when hipfiring), and is beaten by the far more consistent semi-automatic weapons at range.

However, the hitrater output doesn't quite account for bursts, so FTK results aren't entirely indicative of what a skilled player is capable of. With bursts, the StG does gain some long range consistency and loses to the SLRs a bit less at range, but still isn't overpowered.

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Tuesday, October 30th 2018, 11:39pm

This is incredible! Very nice work! Is there any way we could get access to this new Hitrater to mess around with?

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Wednesday, October 31st 2018, 10:54pm

What is the burst length? Does it matter in BFV?

NoctyrneSAGA

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Wednesday, October 31st 2018, 11:30pm

What is the burst length? Does it matter in BFV?


The graphs are the results of a 15 round burst. However, the FTKs derived are all the earliest reported kills in each run.

In a way, the charts can be considered the sum of 1rb, 2rb, 3rb,..., and 15rb.



Looking at the StG 44 ADS Full Right for example:

10m 100% 18 FTK means that out of 100k 15 rb, all of them killed in 18 frames aka effectively 4 BTK. Because hitrater reports back a kill as soon as it happens, a 4rb looks indistinguishable from a 15rb. They all killed at bullet number 4.

125m ~10% 30 FTK means that out of 100k 15 rb, 10% of them would secure a kill in 30 frames aka effectively 6 BTK. ~15% 36 FTK means that out of 100k 15 rb, 15% of them would secure a kill in 36 frames aka effectively 7 BTK. Because the StG is 6 BTK at that range, this only happens if somewhere within a 6 rb one bullet missed. So on and so forth as the FTK gets bigger. ~1% 24 FTK means that out of 100k 15 rb, 1% of them would secure a kill in 24 frames aka effectively 5 BTK. This means somewhere within that 5 BTK, one round struck the head to enable the 5 BTK.



I guess you can also look at each bar as the odds of success for a particular burst size.

Lengthening your burst increases your overall odds of success (one more round that may hit) at the cost of reducing the probability of success (accumulated deviation makes the additional round more unlikely to land). And at some point (like on the Suomi) adding more chances does not yield any noticeable benefits.

As kht120 pointed out, this doesn't look at how fast you can kill if you use multiple small bursts and that may be something I'll look at in the future.
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This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Nov 1st 2018, 12:02am)


NoctyrneSAGA

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Friday, November 2nd 2018, 12:01am

kht reddit thread with prettier charts

Album of pretty charts

These charts are each weapon's four charts from above combined into one so they're really big.
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Tuesday, November 6th 2018, 6:20pm

I hope this begins to put to rest the idea of the StG being overpowered. It's certainly a very good weapon when preemptively ADSed, but cleanly loses to SMGs in close quarters (especially when hipfiring), and is beaten by the far more consistent semi-automatic weapons at range.

However, the hitrater output doesn't quite account for bursts, so FTK results aren't entirely indicative of what a skilled player is capable of. With bursts, the StG does gain some long range consistency and loses to the SLRs a bit less at range, but still isn't overpowered.
Are you using the technical definition for overpowered(unbeatable) or the colloqiual(unbalanced/too high skill input to kill output ratio)? I played with the gun for a few hours during the beta and it was ridiculous how easy and effective it was to use so I put it down for the rest of the beta. I ended up using the G43 and ZH almost exclusively near the end of the beta. It was statistically less consistent than the semi automatic rifles, its bullet/kill efficiency was definitely lower, but its versatility and general ease of use outweighed that. Unless it was StG vs Semi with both parties head glitching at a decent range you were better off with the StG. The weapon felt(dirty word I know) like the equivalent of a day of using the m16a4 fully automatic(somehow) in bf4. Not unbeatable, but almost entirely obsoleting near comparable weapons at effective combat ranges if you're accurate and dont blitzkrieg every single situation and understand cover and sight lines. This avoids making yourself vulnerable at extreme close range to smgs and extreme long range to "dmrs" and snipers.


From my experience playing the beta the StG was somewhat unbalanced relative to other weapons. This is compensated for somewhat by the assault class no longer being able to self heal and the low starting ammo(minor annoyance if you kill people and take their ammo) however so it doesnt overall lean into the bf3 assault+m16a3 territory. Whether the version I played against in the beta is truly unbalanced by launch depends on how the rest of the games maps are designed and what the stats of the other weapons end up being. To balance in the vacuum of the beta imo, it would have needed more substantial FSM and and possible a slightly greater HREC to lock it more into a mid range(40-50m) tool rather than being considerably effective up to 60-70m.


As example not gospel and his recoil control could be even better with more practice so it makes the ranges he was able to make the gun work in that much worse.
MAX Upgrade Scoped STG44 Battlefield 5 Record Gameplay - YouTube
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This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "SotenTsukuyomi" (Nov 6th 2018, 6:26pm)


NoctyrneSAGA

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Tuesday, November 6th 2018, 9:26pm

@SotenTsukuyomi

The only weapon type the StG44 truly dominated over were LMGs.

It could have longer range damage output nerfed like you said and that'd be okay.

The devs did say they were inspired by BF3 so it's not surprising there's an M16A3-esque weapon. The M16A3 and StG44 are the gold standard for weapons.

They're both very responsive weapon platforms and it just feels good to use them. Rather than make them feel meh, all the other weapons should feel just as good.

Some of them do like the ZH29. Double-tapping with that feels as good as a 5rb from the StG44.

In my opinion, all that's really needed is for LMGs to have improved ranged performance.
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"Skill" may indeed be the most magical of words. Chant it well enough and any desire can be yours.

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This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "NoctyrneSAGA" (Nov 7th 2018, 10:57am)


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Wednesday, November 7th 2018, 7:40pm

@NoctyrneSAGA

It didn't dominate them in the sense of being literally OP but it was unbalanced enough to where it could give everything else a run for its money inside 70m in reasonably skilled hands. At longer rangers the accurate higher rpm lets you strafe and worry less about the more extreme hit-or-miss dynamic of the DMR's(pro/cons). It getting defeated by SMG's or DMR's was more a function of the StG player doing something wrong than the other weapons doing something right as its fairly easy to deny a long range kill to anyone but headshot artists with proper movement and easy to remember to corner a little wide to avoid SG and SMG sweetspots. How it will end up playing out large scale is still up to final map designs and weapons, but on the beta maps you could easily get away with StG only gameplay and be consistently effective in almost all circumstances even on the longer range snow map(why use a different weapon). Overall it being unbalanced was more so due to its ease of use being slightly too high rather than it being statistically just better in raw dps(especially once fully upgraded).


I may be bias here(I like a challenge), but I don't personally like a weapon type that is that responsive with a relatively low skill input requirement. I understand some like that "powerful" feeling, and new/low gametime players may need that extra oomph, but when it will obviously dominate the primary weapon meta with no realistic drawbacks its too much since there is no way in place to stop skilled players from abusing the leeway meant for unskilled players. The m16a3 to ace23/416 balance evolution was an example of how to balance all-rounder weapons so that skill input scales well, but isn't out of sync with the other weapons. The ak12/m16a4 functioned at the higher levels of aiming skill and focus required as upgrades to the ace/416 depending on your specialty(if the burst mechanic worked consistently). Then the other weapons fulled niches in either direction of range with more variation than those 4. All this is speaking post 2015 spring patch for bf4 weapons.

Much of the time I would agree buffing everything else is a better option but sometimes far more effective/efficient to just slightly nerf one thing than rebalance everything when only one weapon stands out as being too good(excluding bandwagon opinions).

The issue with DICE is that they go too far and end up having to rebalance everything anyway. An example is the sr338 not being equivalent to a bf3 DMR even though it's recon only and they couldn't use the "all kit bf3 DMR would be too good" excuse, which leads me to believe it was a player reaction based balance decision(dmr hate) and not strictly a game balance decision based on the math. So properly balancing this games weapons properly for me is really critical whether its worth it to purchase it or just stay with bf4 and try ww3.

This is just me speaking of balance as far as practical usage, if your thought process takes into account player feelings toward weapons and keeping new players happy(ish) to get and keep more butts in seats, then I would also lean more towards your conclusion of the game needing an m16a3 spiritual successor.

Im on the same page that LMG's could use a bit more stationary ranged performance. Somewhere between bf3 and bf4 LMG's would be nice. Worse than AR's from hip and while ads strafing, slightly better than AR's at stationary ads at range, and absolutely deadly while on a bipod. I can understand why dice would keep them slightly underpowered as their usage niche was never truly embraced for the average player(broken bipod mechanics didnt help) and the community hates "campers". Dice is trying to be big brother on how each class should play in BFV and force squad cohesion. I don't think it is going to work from what I saw in the beta however, and it will just make people who already mostly like squad play more cohesive and leave everyone else frustrated. Another side-effect was a lot of locked squads, so cohesive yet smaller squads of friends were a thing but squads full of coordinated randoms was no more common than what I see in bf4.
~~~ Understanding is a three-edged sword. Your side, their side, and the truth. ~~~

This post has been edited 2 times, last edit by "SotenTsukuyomi" (Nov 7th 2018, 8:07pm)