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Shotgun damage: New Model

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 1:31pm

Shotgun damage: New Model

THIS POST IS PREVIOUS TO FALL/2015 CHANGES: IT REMAINS VALID AS QUALITATIVE DESCRIPTION OF SHOTGUNS BEHAVIOUR. VALUES BELOW 24 METERS ARE VALID QUANTITATIVELY.

NEW POST

http://forum.symthic.com/battlefield-4-technical-discussion/9878-shotguns-damage-change-fall-2015-patch/

In a previous post I have given some results of damage depending on the number of pellets cartridge based on a probabilistic approach which assumed uniform distribution in the circle of dispersion (if the head occupies 10% of the circle will receive 10% of the pellets).

Actually pellets are randomized to the radius and angle which gives a distribution with a bias to the center.

I have applied the MonteCarlo method which is a computational algorithm suitable for this type of phenomena, generating 136,080 pellets fired for each distance, and evaluating therefore 2.73 million pellets for each shotgun configuration (ads, choke, aiming...).

The MonteCarlo method basically consists of generating a large number of random events (with the rules of the physical process) to obtain a synthetic sample that can be analyzed statistically.

I used a simplified and targeted hitbox.

More details of methodology here:

Spoiler

Each pellet is generated within the circle of dispersion:

r = random (0,1) * R where R = D * TAN (ang) and ang = function (choke)
A = random (0,1) * 2 * PI

Here you see the dispersion (2.000 pellets)

Xd = COS (A) and Yd = SIN (A) are calculated

Pellets are "clusterized" in groups of 12, 15,18 and 21.

The spread Xs, Ys of center of the circle of dispersion are calculated in the same way (polar random too) depending on the form of targeted (ADS, HIP...) that applies equally to each group previously calculated.

If the point aimed is Xa, Ya final coordinates of the pellet are

X = Xa + Xs + Yd and Y = Ya + Ys + Yd

130,080 pellets are generated for each distance.

It is used this simplified Hitbox:

Head 0.20m (width) x 0.30 m (height), damage multiplier = 1
Chest 0.50m (width) x 0.30 m (height), damage multiplier = 1
Stomach 0.50 m (width) x 0.40 m (height), damage multiplier = 0.93
Legs 0.50 m (width) x 0.90 m (height), damage multiplier = 0.93

The origin X=0 and Y=0 is centered in chest.

Arms or defensive spec are not considered.

An algorithm for hit (in or out) is calculated for each pellet.

Damage for each group is obtained and the statistical parameters: mean, median, mode, standard deviation, quartiles, values> 100 and> 50, etc ... are obtained for every 5 meters between 0 and 50 m and 10 m between 50 and 100 m.

Given the method used, the geometric irregularity of the hitbox and that the value of the damage is discreet (There is not half pellets) obtained curves are not smooth and have a tendency to step.

EXCEL was used.

To not write a long post I will display results with little comment, although each graph provide enough material for a long discussion.

The results, for aiming to center of chest (Xa=0, Ya=0) and ADS, are:

Mean values of damage vs distance (slug damage for comparation):

Distances for mean value 100, 11 m for 12 p., 14 m for 15 p., 17 m for 18 p. and 22m for 21 p..

Probability of damage> 100 vs distance:

A shot with 21 pellets kill at 10 m with pprobability 100%, and has a wery small probabiliy to kill at 35 m.

Variation of the standard deviation of damage vs distance:

Standard deviation varies nonlinearly with maximum dispersion of damage at 20 m (approx).

Frequency of damage at a specified distance (25 and 50 m calculated) (this is the lateral dispersion around mean value).

It can be assumed normal distributions of damage despite a small asymmetry (right tail).

Full choke effect in the mean damage (only 12 p and 21 p are represented for better clarity) and % of increase of mean damage:

Full choke improves the mean damage 20% (approx.) and is not very useful at very short range. The effect is like moving curves damage to 5 m further (approx.).

Possibility of analytical modeling with logarithmic models (21 pellets):

We can model curves of damage in three domains, constant maximum damage up to 5 m (exactly to 5.96 m) - not represented- and two logarithmic models, one from 5 to 50 and another from 50 meters.

The confidence interval of 95% is represented. Note the variation of size due to variation of standard deviation. No deviation exits at 5 m: all pellets in target.

A very approximate mean value of the damage can be obtained with the formula (discussion below):

DMG=9 x Np x DMGu(D) / D

Np = Number of pellets in the cartridge
DMGu = Unitary pellet damage at distance D, obtained from the basic curve damage.
D = Distance

Use:

Between 0 and 5 m maximum damage = NpxDMGu (0)
Between 15 and 100 = Formula
For 10 m, average value of 5 m to 15 m.

Here you can see the graphics ( 5 m and 10 m) that represent the area of aiming in which one death with 100% probability and 50% Probability is achieved. 12 -left- and 21 pellets -rigth-.

More discussion below.

Discussion about flechettes and defensive spec. below.

Disclaimer: Sorry for my english, because, as you surely have noticed (all of you are clever men), english is not my mother tongue

This post has been edited 11 times, last edit by "leptis" (Nov 19th 2015, 2:32pm)

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 2:18pm

Shotguns, statistics and probabilistic analysis. Me very, VERY gusta.
So the shotguns were buffed quite a bit after all. OHK ranges are way longer now and almost cover 2/3 of the kills done in the game (implying you hit with them). Not going to say anything about balance tho as it would be so biased.

Good job, man! Symthic needs more topics like this
• 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
• InterimAegis - Weapon comparisons/scoring.
• leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
• Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
• pmax - Statistical analysis of BF4 players/games.
• Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

I pity the wool

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 6:01pm

This is Symthic nerding at its finest

I like you :3

Great work <3
"I put aside a few sceptics, the types of decency in the history of philosophy: the rest haven't the slightest conception of intellectual integrity."
Friedrich Nietzsche

Best of epic quotes

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Just realized it's 4/20 tomorrow

*Logs out of Symthic in preparation*

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Hardline is a fun and sometimes silly Cops and Robbers sorta thing and I think that's great. Or it would be if it didn't suck.

Quoted from "Miffyli"

>littlebird passanger, semi-auto frag rounds
>gunship OP

Meanwhile at DICE-headquarters during BF4's release:

Quoted from "Aenonar"

I'm pretty sure there's a massive post-it on every desk "DON'T FUCKING TOUCH ANYTHING THAT IS ACTUALLY DOING WHAT IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE DOING"

UCAV:

Quoted from "crashmatusow"

"Hey guys remember how stupid prenerf mav was?"

Quoted from "The World Champion"

The World Champion went to China once.

They called me a Gweilo.

So I kicked a big fucking hole in their wall and let all the Mongolians in.

just thought I'd share.

Quoted from "ViperFTW"

The thought of Assaults running out of ACE 23 rounds mid firefight, Engineers facing the rear of an unaware MBT with no rockets left, Recons unable to...Whatever the fuck they do. These are the things that keep me up at night

Quoted from "Oscar"

I don't know what's funnier, the video itself of the fact that an unlisted video has more views than most of your normal videos

Quoted from "Sheepnub"

...

You just live to hit people upside the noggin with a Math Bomb, don't you?

Quoted from "rainkloud"

[context] Maybe it's the UK's overly aggressive porn filter at work. After all, it does have the word "monkey" in it and monkeys have been known to have sex so...

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Previously, at DICE HQ:
"Ok guys, the password is "epic dream worlds"; everyone take a letter and do your best to turn it into into something random that we can put into a picture!"

Quoted from "Nick 30075"

I assume a functional game (BF4) also.

Aww!
*pinches cheeks*
So cute!

Quoted from "NoctyrneSAGA"

But but but

There's no way he doesn't know what he's talking about

Symthic Developer

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 6:41pm

Btw forgot to ask: Did you reduce the damage of one pellet when you increased the number of pellets? Either I am blind or it doesn't say anything about that in the post.
Would be nice to see how, say, the last patch balanced shotguns. Variances between damages from different shots etcetc.
• 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
• InterimAegis - Weapon comparisons/scoring.
• leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
• Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
• pmax - Statistical analysis of BF4 players/games.
• Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 8:34pm

Quoted from "Miffyli"

Btw forgot to ask: Did you reduce the damage of one pellet when you increased the number of pellets? Either I am blind or it doesn't say anything about that in the post.
Would be nice to see how, say, the last patch balanced shotguns. Variances between damages from different shots etcetc.
Thanks, @Sheepnub and @Miffyli.

I have applied the damage/pellet of the game: 11.2 up to 25 m, linear decrease and 5.6 from 50 m for any number of pellets.

I will think in the pre-post patch comparison . Really with the structure of the EXCEL sheet it is not very easy due to clusters of 12, 15, 18 and 21 are "structural" . More work to do

Is there any way (easy) to recover pre-patch stats?.

I pity the wool

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 9:02pm

Quoted from "leptis"

Is there any way (easy) to recover pre-patch stats?.

http://bfdata.juhala.io/#$This is excluding the 'easy' part though :x "I put aside a few sceptics, the types of decency in the history of philosophy: the rest haven't the slightest conception of intellectual integrity." Friedrich Nietzsche Best of epic quotes Spoiler Quoted from "ViperFTW" Quoted from "Sheepnub" Just realized it's 4/20 tomorrow Thanks for the heads up! *Logs out of Symthic in preparation* Quoted from "LeGarcon" Hardline is a fun and sometimes silly Cops and Robbers sorta thing and I think that's great. Or it would be if it didn't suck. Quoted from "Miffyli" >littlebird passanger, semi-auto frag rounds >gunship OP Meanwhile at DICE-headquarters during BF4's release: Quoted from "Aenonar" I'm pretty sure there's a massive post-it on every desk "DON'T FUCKING TOUCH ANYTHING THAT IS ACTUALLY DOING WHAT IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE DOING" UCAV: Quoted from "crashmatusow" "Hey guys remember how stupid prenerf mav was?" "Lets add c4 to it." Quoted from "The World Champion" The World Champion went to China once. They called me a Gweilo. So I kicked a big fucking hole in their wall and let all the Mongolians in. just thought I'd share. Quoted from "ViperFTW" The thought of Assaults running out of ACE 23 rounds mid firefight, Engineers facing the rear of an unaware MBT with no rockets left, Recons unable to...Whatever the fuck they do. These are the things that keep me up at night About hunturk: Quoted from "Oscar" I don't know what's funnier, the video itself of the fact that an unlisted video has more views than most of your normal videos Quoted from "The World Champion" Quoted from "Sheepnub" ... You just live to hit people upside the noggin with a Math Bomb, don't you? Quoted from "rainkloud" [context] Maybe it's the UK's overly aggressive porn filter at work. After all, it does have the word "monkey" in it and monkeys have been known to have sex so... Quoted from "C0llis" Previously, at DICE HQ: "Ok guys, the password is "epic dream worlds"; everyone take a letter and do your best to turn it into into something random that we can put into a picture!" Quoted from "ToTheSun!" Quoted from "Nick 30075" I assume a functional game (BF4) also. Aww! *pinches cheeks* So cute! Quoted from "NoctyrneSAGA" But but but He's a Youtuber There's no way he doesn't know what he's talking about Posts: 282 Date of registration : Mar 17th 2015 Platform: PC Battlelog: Reputation modifier: 10 Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 9:30pm Quoted from "Sheepnub" Quoted from "leptis" Is there any way (easy) to recover pre-patch stats?. http://bfdata.juhala.io/#$

This is excluding the 'easy' part though :x
lol

I have asked for an EASY way precisely to avoid diving into a sea of files ... something like the address of the old stats page pre-patch.... you know everything neat and clear

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 9:38pm

Quoted from "leptis"

Is there any way (easy) to recover pre-patch stats?.

http://bfdata.juhala.io/#\$

This is excluding the 'easy' part though :x
lol

I have asked for an EASY way precisely to avoid diving into a sea of files ... something like the address of the old stats page pre-patch.... you know everything neat and clear

For buckshot you can find the damage values from here. Just navigate to same file (gameplay/weapons/common/bullets/12g_buckshot.dice) in other dataversions to get the different patch values. Scroll down little and you see these which are mainly the ones you need for damage:

Source code

1
2
3
4

StartDamage 11.2
EndDamage 5.6
DamageFalloffStartDistance 25.0
DamageFalloffEndDistance 50.0
• 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
• InterimAegis - Weapon comparisons/scoring.
• leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
• Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
• pmax - Statistical analysis of BF4 players/games.
• Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 9:45pm

Did you account for pre-patch spread values?
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Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 10:17pm

The dispersion and spread pre-patch is the problem.

Changes for QBS09

StandDispersion::FiringDispersionData
MaxAngle 8.0 -> 2.4
MinAngle 3.0 -> 2.4
IncreasePerShot 0.2 -> 0.0

You can see a variable angle for circle that now doesnÂ´t change.

The nominal value of spread ADS=0,1 shown in stats now...what was previosly?