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  • "leptis" started this thread

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Monday, December 5th 2016, 12:28am

BF1 shotguns: Analysis of Damage.

I calculated the effect of a single shot with BF1 shotguns that use buckshots.

The methodology is the one that was exposed in the thread

Shotgun damage: New Model

Montecarlo method, 2000 shots per distance.

The analysis scenario is ADS (barrel spread = 0), aim to X = 0.00 Y = 1.05, multipliers equal to 1. Dispersion of pellets biased to the center (exponent = 1).

Incidentally, the shotguns need a lower aim than the rest of the weapons for an optimal result (about 10 cm below) because the head has a multiplier 1 and headshots do not give advantage.

Average Damage:



The average damage only shows one point of the possible damage curve at a distance because different values are possible:

Spoiler Spoiler



This is a point that many players do not understand: A shot can have 140 damage, but can also have a 70, even with perfect aiming.

This can be seen in the value of the standard deviation of the damage values, although it is not an easy to understand graph:

Spoiler Spoiler



More clear is if we express the probability of damage in this way:

Spoiler Spoiler



The average damage is just the cross of these curves with the line 50% but these curves only can be given for one weapon (it would be a mess give all curves together). Note that the real values are staggered because with a damage, for instance, 8.4 per pellet we can only get 8.4, 16.8, 25.2 ... but not any value.

But a player wants to know if a shot is going to kill or not, because it is assumed that a shotgun has to solve the question with a single shot. If it produces a damage of 140 it is the same as if it produces a damage of 101. This is the probability curve of damage bigger than 100, or what is the same the probability of killing from a single shot. There are no curves of 12G Auto because it no able to kill with a single shot (wich kind of shotgun is this supposed to be?).

Spoiler Spoiler



I have also calculated the damage curves when there is a horizontal deflection of the aiming, ie the sensitivity of the mean damage to the deflection in "X" axe:

Spoiler Spoiler



As can be seen with this shotgun at 5 meters the tolerance to deflection is about 17 cm to get an average damage of 100. At 10 m ... practically only the centered shots get damage 100. Remember ... the shotguns need a to be aimed more accurately than the rest of the weapons, against what most players believe. Seeing most of the circle on the enemy's body does not guarantee anything.

The variability of the damage at a specific distance and the sensitivity to the aiming are basic to understand the operation of the shotguns.

Conclusion: DICE has broken the logic of BF4 with shotguns. There was: equal damage per pellet, more pellets=more damage but less ROF. Here they vary cone angle, pellet damage and number of pellets at the same time. More difficult to know the behavior of a weapon. That's why the curves are less structured than there.

More conclusions in the discussion.

This post has been edited 4 times, last edit by "leptis" (Dec 5th 2016, 8:49pm)


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Monday, December 5th 2016, 12:41am

So....according to your math. If I'm interpreting this right, The absolute max OHK range of the A-10 Hunter is 17m?

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  • "leptis" started this thread

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Monday, December 5th 2016, 1:12am

So....according to your math. If I'm interpreting this right, The absolute max OHK range of the A-10 Hunter is 17m?


Sorry!!!! ... I have artificially introduced the values at 0 m to have fancy graphics and that has displaced the value. I edit the graph. The maximum distance for that weapon is 20 m.

In any case 20 m, but with an insignificant probability, althoughhhhh ... remember that we have done the simulation with 2000 shots. This means that we have probably recorded the events that can occur with a probability bigger than 1/2000 = 0.05% (actually it isn't this... but that is advanced statistics). There is a much smaller probability of getting DMG> 100 at more than 20 m.

The correct thing would be to say: In a sample of 2000 shot none DMG>100 shot has been recorded at >20 m (in fact, at 20 m, only 4 shots have got DMG>100).

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "leptis" (Dec 5th 2016, 7:52pm)


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Monday, December 5th 2016, 2:36pm

Interesting to see more variation with shotguns (via the analytical way). Could it be possible to include shotgun's spread (not pellet spread) in these to see the effect of moving vs. not moving (and the benefit of using ADS)? Shotguns seem to share very similar spread values so you can save time by doing only one of these weapons. The original spread deviates the center point of the pellet cone.
Links to users' thread list who have made analytical/statistical/mathematical/cool posts on Symthic:
  • 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
  • leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
  • Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
  • Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

  • "leptis" started this thread

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Monday, December 5th 2016, 7:51pm


Interesting to see more variation with shotguns (via the analytical way). Could it be possible to include shotgun's spread (not pellet spread) in these to see the effect of moving vs. not moving (and the benefit of using ADS)? Shotguns seem to share very similar spread values so you can save time by doing only one of these weapons. The original spread deviates the center point of the pellet cone.



Sure!!!

But i was planning to do something more "flamboyant"...something like "what distribution is the addition of "circular uniform" + "circular biased"?". Or.. "wich part of the final result is due to each parameter?"...perhaps... "can spread+distribution of pellets be reconverted into a virtual spread with exponent 'n' ?".

An advance of my "burst analizer" converted into "pellets analizer" (provisional) applied to hipfire+move and eccentric shot:

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "leptis" (Dec 6th 2016, 2:44pm)


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Monday, December 5th 2016, 8:40pm

@leptis

Hmm like representing pellet spread + normal spread in one "spread"? I guess it is somewhat simple way of just combining the first almost-even spread with this focus-in-middle spread. Unless I am terribly mistaken it should end up into one big, but focused-in-middle, deviation.

Btw I guess the title of thread should be "Analysis of Damage", not "Analisys of Damage" ^^
Links to users' thread list who have made analytical/statistical/mathematical/cool posts on Symthic:
  • 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
  • leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
  • Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
  • Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

  • "leptis" started this thread

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Monday, December 5th 2016, 8:59pm

@leptis

Hmm like representing pellet spread + normal spread in one "spread"? I guess it is somewhat simple way of just combining the first almost-even spread with this focus-in-middle spread. Unless I am terribly mistaken it should end up into one big, but focused-in-middle, deviation.

Btw I guess the title of thread should be "Analysis of Damage", not "Analisys of Damage" ^^


That is the question I want to analize: how the distribution combine. Obviously the values of shotguns damage HIP&MOVE will be given. But I want to get these added value.

Feel free to correct my english. :) (title edited)

I expect that my math is better than my english!!! :) :) :)

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Sunday, February 5th 2017, 4:52pm

Hey,

I'm just curious how the max 1 shot (ie. >=100 damage) range for the M10-A can be 20m, when symthic's stats page states that the damage per pellet drops to 4.5 at 17m? Even if all 20 pellets hit at 17m, they could only do 90 damage, no?

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Sunday, February 5th 2017, 5:12pm

Hey,

I'm just curious how the max 1 shot (ie. >=100 damage) range for the M10-A can be 20m, when symthic's stats page states that the damage per pellet drops to 4.5 at 17m? Even if all 20 pellets hit at 17m, they could only do 90 damage, no?

leptis ran these calculations before the patch that modified the Model 10-A. While the changes don't seem that huge on paper, they had some subtle changes like this one you pointed out.
Links to users' thread list who have made analytical/statistical/mathematical/cool posts on Symthic:
  • 3VerstsNorth - Analysis of game mechanics in BF4 (tickrates, effects of tickrate, etc)
  • leptis - Analysis of shotguns, recoil, recoil control and air drag.
  • Veritable - Scoring of BF4/BF1 firearms in terms of usability, firing and other mechanics.
  • Miffyli - Random statistical analysis of BF4 battlereports/players and kill-distances. (list is cluttered with other threads).
Sorry if your name wasn't on the list, I honestly can't recall all names : ( . Nudge me if you want to be included

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Sunday, February 5th 2017, 9:17pm

It is probably not 20 meters.
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