Hello everyone

I recently found this post on reddit:

[BF1]Why random spread really isn't that random. : Battlefield
In the original Post there is a formula mentioned that is used to determine the hit rate. it goes:

[Percentage chance of bullet hitting the target] = ([Area of target] / (pi * [Distance to target] * TAN([Spread in degrees])^2) * 100

now just based on the assumption that the game somehow tries to resemble reality to a certain degree this formula doesnt make sense right? shouldn't it be:

[Percentage chance of bullet hitting the target] = ([Area of target] / (pi * {[Distance to target] * TAN[Spread in degrees]}^2) * 100

the OP even gave an explanation in a later post actually confirming my assumption. he said

- "A=pi*r2." and "r=d*TAN(degrees)"

=> A=pi*(d*TAN(degrees))^2 but he wrote the equivalent to A=pi*d*TAN(degrees)^2

i was just wondering cause nobody in said post mentioned that. OP proceeded to use this (worng?) formula to calculate hit chances of weapons for different ranges....

so am i just messing up completely here or did this guy make a mistake?

furtherly i found a formula for spread calculation here:

BF1 Miscellaneous Info | Symthic
this formula implies that the bullets are in fact not distributed uniformly over the concerning circle's. in the formula it says that the polar coordinates are used. Hence not the x and y coordinates are picked uniformly randomly but rather an angle and a distance to the 0 point. therefore the random variable that describes the distance to the center of the possible spread circle is actually uniformly distributed over the radius of the circle. This would imply that another mistake was made in OP's calculations?

can anyone bring some light into this? was the formula mentioned maybe changed since the guy posted this?