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  • "InterimAegis" started this thread

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Tuesday, December 19th 2017, 1:00am

Medic Rifle Scoring, Turning Tides Edition

I have completed my Turning Tides medic rifle scoring, including engagement-distance-weighted performance. All results below come from simulating every tick with recoil decrease changes implemented during the They Shall Not Pass DLC. Plots show effective TTK and effective kills per reload for each weapon and variant. Composite score is 2/3 TTK and 1/3 KPM weighted by typical engagement distance courtesy of @miffyli (all-around metric) and 50% ADS moving and 50% ADS not moving.

Updates
  • 12-21: Added recoil decrease mechanics
  • 12-22: Refined composite scoring
  • 12-24: Added the C96 Trench from Assault class and M1903 Experimental from Scout class.
  • 12-25: Added the 10A and M1900 Slugs and C91 and Russian 1895 Trench
  • 12-26: Added additional information about the General Liu, and why you really shouldn't use it.
  • 1-3: Bug fixes, including improperly applied moving spread values. Separated moving and not moving scoring.

Assumptions
  1. Recoil is compensated for vertically.
  2. You fire the weapon at its listed RPM - this is will therefore underrate the hidden spread decrease bonuses of Factory, Optical, and Marksman variants, so be aware.
  3. You fire the weapon until you achieve a kill, and then reset spread and recoil while finding your next target.
  4. Bullet velocity is considered at each range.
  5. ADS firing, 50% moving and 50% not moving.
  6. Recoil is tracked during every tick at a rate of 30 Hz using the recoil decrease equations and scaling updated during TSNP.


Results
  1. The Autoloading 8 .35 Marksman and Factory are the kings of TTK under 47 m (no surprises there). They show up on every list and even compete with bullpup-mod weapons in moving stances. They are followed by the Selbstadler 1906 Optical Factory and Sniper (>47 m). The Fedorov Avtomat (<27 m), Cei-Rigotti Optical (<37 m), and RSC Optical (<47 m) boast excellent effective TTKs within their ideal ranges.
  2. The Selbstlader 1916 has a lousy TTK at all ranges, but it can handle standing and shooting at long range by virtue of capacity alone. The M1907 and Autoloading 8 .25 Extended have lousy effective TTKs over 27 and 17 m, respectively. I really cannot recommend the M1907 in any possible way.
  3. The C96 Trench would be the worst SLR of the Medic class. That said, it is middle-of-the-pack out to its first drop off point at 22 m by virtue of its massive magazine and better-than-S1916 TTK. I think when its BTK is reduced with the TTK balancing patch, this weapon will be a legitimate option. Right now, while it is fun and at least defensible to use, it's awfully outclassed. The M1903 Experimental, however, is the absolute worst semi-automatic primary weapon by far. While the C96 Trench was at least comparable to the bottom tier composite scores, the M1903 Experimental was well below. Hopefully it gets some love in with the TTK pass. I have also added the Slugs from Assault and the Trench Carbines from Scout for reference - the 1900 Slug is quite good. The Carcano M91 is excellent over ~50 m as a heavy SLR.
  4. Recommendations for long range (47+ m): Selbstlader 1906 Factory (#5 overall) for speed and versatility and the Selbstlader 1916 Optical (#7 overall) for bullets. If the S1906 is a scalpel, the S1916 is a cudgel; the 1916 just has enough bullets to survive recoil and spread patterns to secure kills by brute force. The Mondragons are a compromise, but they end up just being good at...nothing. At least the Selb. 1906 has the versatility to compete at closer ranges where the S1916 is worst-in-class.
    NOTE: Even though the General Lius are here, I cannot recommend them over the Selbstlader 1906. The single extra bullet stops mattering over 20 m because it becomes incredibly difficult to secure 2 kills per reload over that distance even when not moving. Furthermore, the improved accuracy of the Selb. 1906 means that while you have 1 fewer bullet, you on average land more shots per reload with the 1906 starting around 30 m (see Storm variant comparison figure for details).
  5. Recommendations for mid-range (27-47 m): Autoloading 8 .35s (#1a,b overall), Cei-Rigotti Optical (#3 overall), and the RSC Optical (#6 overall) give you quick effective TTKs. The Farquhar-Hill Optical appears as a jack-of-all-trades option (#4 overall).
  6. Recommendation for close quarters (0-25 m): Fedorov Avtomat Optical (#2 overall) shines here. Excellent moving characteristics and outclasses the Trench variant unless you never ADS. The Autoloading 8 .35s fair quite well here too.
  7. Recommendation for extreme close quarters (0-15 m): Autoloading 8 .25 Extended (<17 m) for speed and ease of use if you really really need an edge at point-blank range. It is a straight upgrade from all M1907 variants (17-27 m you should be using the Fedorov Avtomat Optical anyway).
  8. Best jack-of-all-trades weapons: Cei-Rigotti Optical (#3 overall) performs admirably at all ranges even after its damage drop off - note that it nearly competes with the Mondragons (C-R has less recoil and bullpup moving spread) and Gen. Lius (C-R has less recoil, better min. spread, and bullpup moving spread) even after its damage model becomes inferior. The only real drawback is its reload animation, which cannot be cancelled and resumed. The Farqhuar-Hill Optical (#4 overall) scores like a Selb. 1916 merged with a C-R Optical; the Optical spread characteristics and low horizontal recoil make this an underrated option with careful play (i.e. don't rush into point-blank fights).
  9. A note on the interplay between Storm and Optical/Factory variants: If your horizontal recoil is high enough (0.5+ L + R), Storm variants will benefit you. If your recoil is less than that, Storm variants hurt more than they help. This is a MAJOR change from the pre-TSNP recoil scaling, and I personally didn't catch it until now. Bottom line here: General Liu Storm is good to use if that is your cup of tea, but the Farquhar-Hill or Mondragon Storm will cost you dearly, because their recoil is already small relative to the rest of its class. Personally, I don't like Storm variants because I like to fire at the optimal RoF given a weapon's SIPS, but these data show if you are planning on spamming a bit, the General Liu Storm variants can help you. See figures for these data.
  10. A note on why Optical variants dominate the standings: Optical variants have improvement to both standing and moving spread, and that appears to be a massive advantage. When standing, Optical variants already have excellent hit rater values compared to other variants, and then when you tack on their moving spread buff, you end up with Optical variants dominating the standings. It seems to me that there is really no reason not to take advantage of Optical variants with: (1) excellent min. spread, (2) excellent SIPS, and (3) excellent moving min. spread. For the Cei-Rigotti and Fedorov Avtomat, the combination of the bullpup mod only makes this more obvious in terms of moving spread.
  11. A note on the TTK shift: The TTK shift will buff high RoF weapons more than low RoF weapons. I anticipate all of the top-tier weapons will remain mainstays post-patch, but I expect the Cei-Rigotti to benefit the most in practice (with single fire at optimal rate vs. fully automatic Fedorov at max rate, unless you can click/pull the trigger at 416 RPM consistently). I expect the Selb. 1916 and the RSC to get dinged a bit in the rankings. See SLR Optimal RoF Analysis - TT Edition.
  12. My personal choices:
    • Autoloading 8 .35 Factory on smaller game modes or on claustrophobic maps (e.g. Amiens, town on St. Quentin's Scar, trenches in Nivelle Nights, parts of Argonne Forest).
    • Cei-Rigotti Optical is in my regular rotation on smaller maps, and I anticipate it being a top-tier weapon post-TTK patch when its range is increased.
    • Farquhar-Hill Optical on open maps (all the In the Name of the Tsar maps, Monte Grappa, Ballroom Blitz, Sinai, Suez, etc.)
    • Fedorov Avtomat Optical when I need to be constantly on the move with a squad in CQC.


Best weapons by engagement distance
0-27 m: Fedorov Avtomat Optical
27-47 m: Farquhar-Hill Optical
47-69 m: Selbstlader 1916 Optical
70+ m: Selbstlader 1906 Factory

Best all-around weapons (composite score > 50%)
1. Autoloading 8 .35 Marksman/Factory
2. Fedorov Avtomat Optical
3. Cei-Rigotti Optical
4. Farquhar-Hill Optical
5. Selbstlader 1906 Factory
6. RSC Optical
7. Selbstlader 1916 Optical
Honorable Mention: Fedorov Avtomat Trench

Best moving (offensive) weapons
1. Fedorov Avtomat Optical
2. Autoloading 8 .35 Marksman
3. Cei-Rigotti Optical
4. Autoloading 8. Factory
5. Selbstlader 1906 Factory
6. Farquhar-Hill Optical
7. RSC Optical
8. Fedorov Avtomat Trench

Best standing (defensive) weapons
1. Autoloading 8 .35 Marksman
2. Autoloading 8 .35 Factory
3. RSC Factory
4. Fedorov Avtomat Optical
5. Farquhar-Hill Optical
6. RSC Optical
7. Cei-Rigotti Optical
8. Selbstlader 1906 Factory
InterimAegis has attached the following files:

This post has been edited 90 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Jan 5th 2018, 9:18pm) with the following reason: Adding information, improving clarity


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Tuesday, December 19th 2017, 6:25pm

I'm a little surprised at this result, because I am thinking back to BF3 and the debate about using the foregrip (an attachment that reduced horizontal recoil, but increased min spread). It was the consensus that heavy barrel + foregrip was the way to go on most weapons as the higher starting (less accurate) min spread value was offset by the reduction in horizontal recoil. So, your with the HB+FG setup, your first shot was a little less accurate (but accurate enough), but the foregrip reduction in horizontal recoil makes up this difference in accuracy by the 3rd, 4th, and so bullet in a burst.

But for BF1, it seems that because optical variant conjoins both lower min spread AND lower SIPS that this produces better accuracy than just reducing horizontal recoil. But, optical gives you a flat (one time) 25% less min spread AND a per bullet 37.5% less SIPS whereas the storm variant gives a per bullet 40% less horizontal recoil. So, since the storm's variant has a bigger per bullet buff (40% versus 37.5%) does it ever catch up in accuracy over more bullets in a burst (does its per bullet difference make up for the initial lower min spread ever)? It might take too many bullets to make up the difference for it matter in practice where your accuracy is so poor anyway that it doesn't matter.

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "dwojtk" (Dec 19th 2017, 6:30pm)


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Tuesday, December 19th 2017, 6:38pm

I'm a little surprised at this result, because I am thinking back to BF3 and the debate about using the foregrip (an attachment that reduced horizontal recoil, but increased min spread). It was the consensus that heavy barrel + foregrip was the way to go on most weapons as the higher starting (less accurate) min spread value was offset by the reduction in horizontal recoil. So, your with the HB+FG setup, your first shot was a little less accurate (but accurate enough), but the foregrip reduction in horizontal recoil makes up this difference in accuracy by the 3rd, 4th, and so bullet in a burst.

But for BF1, it seems that because optical variant conjoins both lower min spread AND lower SIPS that this produces better accuracy than just reducing horizontal recoil. But, optical gives you a flat (one time) 25% less min spread AND a per bullet 37.5% less SIPS whereas the storm variant gives a per bullet 40% less horizontal recoil. So, since the storm's variant has a bigger per bullet buff (40% versus 37.5%) does it ever catch up in accuracy over more bullets in a burst (does its per bullet difference make up for the initial lower min spread ever)? It might take too many bullets to make up the difference for it matter in practice where your accuracy is so poor anyway that it doesn't matter.


You are absolutely correct. My numbers thus far show it never catching up until you reach max spread on bullet 10 with an Optical: (1.2-.135)/.125 + 1 = 9.52. You reach max spread on bullet 7 with a Storm variant.

@dwojtk @bleedinguranium

Here is a full workup of hitrates for the F-H S and F-H O respectively followed by the difference at 30 m with a complete mag dump over 100,000 iterations (also, my hit rater is now fully working and automated, so expect a lot more in this thread over the next day or two):

Source code

1
2
3
Storm [ 1.   0.92878  0.73187  0.57448  0.47051  0.39512  0.3888   0.38273 0.3848   0.381    0.38123  0.37835  0.37813  0.37142  0.37541  0.37007 0.36596  0.36358  0.36297  0.36025]
Optic [ 1.   0.92488  0.76747  0.65294  0.5678   0.50097  0.44738  0.40667 0.36596  0.34899  0.34764  0.34178  0.3317   0.32892  0.32045  0.31954 0.31258  0.31103  0.30502  0.30013]
Diffe [ 0.  -0.0039   0.0356   0.07846  0.09729  0.10585  0.05858  0.02394 -0.01884 -0.03201 -0.03359 -0.03657 -0.04643 -0.0425  -0.05496 -0.05053 -0.05338 -0.05255 -0.05795 -0.06012]


Takeaway:
The Storm variant gets a minuscule advantage (0.4%) on the second bullet but is otherwise completely outclassed until the Optical approaches minimum spread on bullet 9, at which point the Storm variant begins to hit more accurately. However, for weapons like the Mondragon or Cei-Rigotti, you need to basically perform a total mag dump for this to matter.

This post has been edited 3 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Dec 20th 2017, 1:37am)


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Wednesday, December 20th 2017, 11:30am

Question: How are the first shots for both variants not a 100% hit at 30m? There is no recoil involved and base spread is low enough that it does not matter at that range.

  • "InterimAegis" started this thread

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Wednesday, December 20th 2017, 11:32am

Question: How are the first shots for both variants not a 100% hit at 30m? There is no recoil involved and base spread is low enough that it does not matter at that range.


Both are 100% hit rates on the first shot (listed as 1).

This post has been edited 1 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Dec 20th 2017, 11:39am)


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Wednesday, December 20th 2017, 6:24pm

Autoloading 8 .35 Marksman just feels so inaccurate compared to the FH Optical.

NoctyrneSAGA

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Wednesday, December 20th 2017, 6:52pm

What does this hitrater assume?
Data Browser

Passive Spotting is the future!

With this, I'll rid MGO3 of infestation. Sans bad gameplay MGO3 will be torn asunder. And then it shall be free. People will suffer, of course - a phantom pain.

Reddit and Konami will rewrite the records... And I will be demonized in human memory. But... The thirst for good gameplay that I have planted will infest MGO3. No one can stop it now. The Rebalance Mod will unleash that thirst unto the future.


Are you a scrub?

If it flies, it dies™.

  • "InterimAegis" started this thread

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Wednesday, December 20th 2017, 11:17pm

What does this hitrater assume?


Right now, it's HRec + HSpread and VSpread mechanics over 100000 iterations. So it assumes you can control your VRec, but not your HRec or Spread, and you fire the weapon at its listed RPM. I will tweak fire rates and add recoil and spread decrease in time as I build out my capabilities.

If it helps, when I make the same assumptions as the GUI hitrater floating around, I get the same results.

This post has been edited 3 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Dec 21st 2017, 1:40am)


NoctyrneSAGA

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Thursday, December 21st 2017, 1:01am

spread sitributions, target sizes?
Data Browser

Passive Spotting is the future!

With this, I'll rid MGO3 of infestation. Sans bad gameplay MGO3 will be torn asunder. And then it shall be free. People will suffer, of course - a phantom pain.

Reddit and Konami will rewrite the records... And I will be demonized in human memory. But... The thirst for good gameplay that I have planted will infest MGO3. No one can stop it now. The Rebalance Mod will unleash that thirst unto the future.


Are you a scrub?

If it flies, it dies™.

  • "InterimAegis" started this thread

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Thursday, December 21st 2017, 1:37am

spread sitributions, target sizes?


Leptis hitbox. Random cone spread with a=0.5.

EDIT: Updated original post with current results for all weapons and variants, including initial takeaways. @dwojtk see updated info about Storm vs. Optical variants in original post.

This post has been edited 3 times, last edit by "InterimAegis" (Dec 21st 2017, 3:47am)